By Logan Sella
Odds via OddsShark, The Action Network
Welcome to Week 6! We are officially past the halfway point of October, and there is officially the patented Michigan fall chill in the air (Only a week away from Michigan Wolverine football too, look out). Perhaps I am a cold-weather gambler, as last week, I officially was in the green for an NFL Sunday for the first time this season. Time to get hot? I say yes. Here are my 3 moneymakers for this week:
New England (-7.5) vs. Denver
Although Foxborough has become a bit of a COVID hub, with two of the Patriots’ best players missing action, be it in games or practice, in Cam Newton and Stephon Gilmore, if there was ever a coach that could have a team ready in compromised circumstances, it would be Bill Belichick. We also just saw Tennessee lay the wood to a hot Buffalo team last Tuesday with minimal practice time, led by none other than Belichick disciple Mike Vrabel.
The Patriots just chew up bad teams and bad quarterbacks too: Since 2004, New England is 115-59-6 against the spread vs. teams that didn’t make the playoffs the previous season, and 11-3 in their last 14 at home against teams with losing records. Denver QB Drew Lock is just coming back off of injury, and I think he’ll be in for a tough day against a defense that is 2nd in QB pressure created. $100 to win $95.
Pittsburgh (-3) vs. Cleveland
This is probably the game of the day in the 1 o’clock early window, with the two leaders in the AFC North going head-to-head for the early pole position in the division. This is going to be a true measuring-stick games for both teams as well, as Cleveland has wins against lowly Cincinnati and Washington, and two more teams with major question marks in Dallas and Indianapolis. The same could be said about the Steelers, as their wins have come against Denver, Philly, Houston and the Giants, not exactly a murderers’ row.
While our friend Emily Musella is hammering the over in this one, I am riding with Pittsburgh. Browns QB Baker Mayfield is battling a rib injury, and without stud RB Nick Chubb available, it will be an uphill battle against a defense that is 6th in scoring, 4th in yards per play allowed, and 1st in QB pressure created.
History says to bet the farm here: Cleveland is 0-16 in their last 16 in Pittsburgh, losing by an average of more than 12 points per contest, and Ben Roethlisberger is a perfect 11-0 at home against the Browns in his career. We’ll take them for $100 to win $94.
San Francisco (+3) vs Los Angeles
This has been one of the wildest lines of the week, as SF opened as 3-point favorites, and have now moved all the way to three-point underdogs. You don’t see these kind of swings very often, and if we can get one in our favor, I’m going to jump on it. Betting sharps are with me, as according to The Action Network, San Francisco is commanding 54% of the money on this game and only 42% of the bets, meaning that wise guys are putting down big money on the home team here.
While LA has been impressive early on this year, so far leading the league in yards per play on offense, I think they are a little bit of a mirage so far. All 4 of their wins so far have come against the lowly NFC East.
While it has been ugly for the Niners as of late, especially last week against Miami, especially for QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who turned in his worst outing as a pro last Sunday with a 7/17 outing and 2 atrocious interceptions, they are going to come out swinging, as falling to 2-4 in a stacked division (Seattle leads the way at 5-0) would just about cross them off for a playoff spot.
They have still played some big-league defense, ranking 8th in yards per play on that side of the ball, and 5th in yards per game. Garoppolo will be back to full health after being limited with an ankle injury last week, and Kyle Shanahan has been a live dog, especially as of late, going 5-1 ATS as an underdog. $105 to win $89.
2020 Season Record: 7-10, $100 bettor down $249