By: Trent Pruitt (@trentbets)
A banged up Bayern Munchen team takes the pitch down a goal on Tuesday afternoon and they’ll need to be on their A-game if they want to make up the 3-2 deficit and advance to the semifinals. As for the French side, notching three road goals puts them in a fantastic spot against the Germans who will once again be without their top scorer. Let’s dive into the numbers and try to cash a ticket for some Tuesday afternoon Champions League action!
Money Line: PSG +200 | FCB +118 | DRAW +313
Spread: PSG +.25 (-109) | FCB -.25 (-111)
Total: 3.75 (O -105, U -115)
Kickoff: 3:00 ET | Le Parc des Princes | Paris, Fr
Odds To Advance: PSG -260 | FCB +200
In addition to playing without Robert Lewandowski, the Champs will be without Costa, Gnarby, Tillman, and Tolisso. It’s an uphill battle but if anybody has the depth to pull it off, it’ll be Bayern. As for league play, Munchen is coming off of a 1-1 draw with Union Berlin at Allianz. They’re now 1-1-1 in all three competitions since losing Lewandowski at the international break.
The first match didn’t start well for Bayern Munchen as they conceded the initial two goals – one to Mbappe in the 3rd minute and once again to Marquinhos in the 28th. But they battled back to tie the game thanks to goals from Choupo-Moting (37’) and Muller (60’) before Mbappe struck again (68’) and put them to rest. The game saw 31 shots from Bayern compared to just six from PSG. They controlled the possession battle at a 64% clip and were the better passing team at 87% compared to 76%. And there was a barrage of corners from Munchen at 15-1.
Paris Saint Germain
Securing a win in the first leg and adding three road goals has the French side feeling good entering the match on Tuesday. But they can’t sit back and relax as Bayern still has plenty of firepower at their disposal. For league play this past week, they spanked Strasbourg 4-1 thanks to goals from Mbappe (16’), Sarabia (27’), Kean (45’), and Paredes (79’). They’re first in goals in Ligue 1 and sit three points back of Lille for the title.
I pretty much dove into most of the important stats regarding the last game, and even though they got dominated on the stat sheet, PSG took advantage of the opportunities they were given. And that’s the biggest takeaway from that.
Final Analysis & Best Bet
I’m taking Bayern Munchen to win (+118) for a unit this afternoon! While they may not be able to win by 2+ or win 3-2 to force extra time, I still think there is a plethora of talent on this injury ridden Bayern team. They absolutely dominated the stat sheet last game and being down heading into this one, I think it’ll be a blitzkrieg and we’ll see something similar. The Champs are going to bring the pressure early on and try to keep the French side on their heels the entire match. It’s also imperative to mark Kylian Mbappe on Tuesday. He’s scored the opening goal in three out of PSG’s most recent four games and if they can keep him off of the score sheet, they’ll be in good shape. Ultimately, it comes down to Bayern being the more battle tested team. They’ve been in the big moments before. Manuel Neuer is going to be on is A+++-game in this one as he’s usually the man to step up when the pressure is on. Take the Champs to prevail in the second leg. I’ll say 2-1 final.