By: Logan Sella
Odds & Info via POINTSBET, OddsShark, The Action Network
Welcome to Week 11! We are officially almost to the holiday season, and I am just about done with another college semester. Lucky for everyone, I’m not letting exam week stop me from cranking out winners. They say the best teams start playing their best football right around Thanksgiving, and I don’t see why I should be any different. Even with an all-time bad beat last week, we were still 2-2, and have been on a lot of the right sides as of late. Maybe this could be the week to finally get us in the green…
Baltimore (-6) vs. Tennessee
This is a playoff rematch of two AFC teams who could badly use a win; Baltimore comes home after a tough loss to the Patriots in a washout last Sunday night, and the Titans are fresh off of a 34-17 shellacking to division rival Indianapolis last Thursday.
While I don’t like Baltimore’s health (they are missing two studs on the offensive line from last year, Ronnie Stanley and future hall of famer Marshal Yanda, as well as a really good defensive tackle in Calais Campbell), I think that this could be a good get-right spot for the Ravens.
While Lamar Jackson has now notably struggled against elite teams and defenses in big games, the Titans do not belong in either category right now, especially on defense: they rank 30th in sack percentage, 21st in opponent yards per play, and 20th in yards per rush attempt allowed.
Baltimore under John Harbaugh has been great after a loss, 13-3 in their last 16 after losing the previous week, and Tennessee has lost their last 4 on the road against the spread. I expect more of the same today. $100 to win $95.
Miami (-4) @ Denver
I don’t want to say that I told you so about Tua, but…so far, we’ve been right on the nose as far as how he has helped the Dolphins.
He’s been money so far as well; 3-0 straight up and against the spread in his first three starts. In truth, though, Miami’s success has been just as much, if not, more so, about the play of their defense, which has been sensational during the winning streak, forcing 15 turnovers so far this season, 4th best in the league.
This will play well against an anemic Denver offense. QB Drew Lock is dead last in completion percentage, the offensive line is 29th in pressure allowed, and they are 26th in yards per play as a whole.
While I’m guessing that this line may be closer than some might expect because of the idea that Tagovailoa will be playing his first game in cold weather, game-time temps are expected to be near 50 degrees at Mile High, so I don’t think it will be an issue. Brain Flores is undefeated as a favorite as head coach of the Dolphins as well. $100 to win $93.
Green Bay (+1.5) @ Indianapolis
In a week full of marquee matchups in primetime (Cardinals-Seahawks on Thursday, Chiefs-Raiders tonight, Rams-Bucs Monday night), this might be the game of the day in the afternoon slate. Both teams come into town with playoff aspirations, and Green Bay certainly in play for the coveted 1 seed in the NFC.
While the Packers sleepwalked through their close win vs. the Jaguars last week, I expect them to come ready to play today from the get-go. Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur are 5-1 against the spread and straight up as underdogs, and I think Rodgers will look to play well in a big game.
Indianapolis’ defense is good on paper, and rank among the elite in a few categories; 2nd in yards per play allowed, 5th in opponent completion percentage, and 4th in scoring, but I still think that they are a little bit of a mirage. They have played a hodgepodge of quarterbacks so far this season (Gardner Minshew, Sam Darnold, Nick Foles, Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield, to name a few), with only one opponent (Matt Stafford) ranking in the top 10 in QBR so far.
Also, while we have seen Green Bay be susceptible to getting pounded in the running game (such as vs. the Buccaneers and Vikings), that has been a weak point for the Colts so far this season. They rank 20th in rushing yards per game, and 19th in yards per rush attempt.
I don’t think Philip Rivers will be able to keep pace with a Green Bay team that has been kept under 30 only once this year, and an offense that is getting healthy, with the returns of stalwart LT David Bakhtiari and WR Allen Lazard. $100 to win $90.
Washington (-1.5) vs. Cincinnati
Today, we get to see the top two picks of the 2020 NFL Draft go head-to-head, with Joe Burrow leading the Bengals against Chase Young and the Washington Footballers.
This will be a game that will be won on the inside for Washington, especially on defense. While Young hasn’t been particularly splashy so far (only 3.5 sacks so far), the WFT defensive line has gotten to opposing quarterbacks effectively, with the 5th-most sacks in the league so far. Cincy is also missing their two starting tackles on the offensive line from injuries sustained in the last two weeks.
The Bengals defense is just plain bad, also; 30th in yards per play allowed, 26th in total yards, and 26th in opponent pass yards per attempt. They haven’t won on the road all year, and are a paltry 0-17-1 in their last 18 games away from home. Burrow and the Bengals have been a gambling surprise, going 6-2 in the first half of the season, and I think they’ll start coming back down to earth down the stretch here. $100 to win $90,
2020 Season Record: 17-18, $100 bettor down $135