The last few cfb cards have been brutal. The massive number of cancelations has really dwindled the games that we can choose from. That is no excuse though. I need to be better than I have been the last 2 weeks. There is a large slate this weekend that I think we can pounce on!
Florida/Vanderbilt ov 67.5: I’m shocked we are getting a total in the 60’s here. Florida might be the best offense in the country averaging over 7 yards per play and putting up over 40 points per game. QB Kyle Trask is one of the current Heisman favorites. I can’t argue with that. He’s completing over 70% of his passes averaging over 10 yards per attempt. Florida should tear up this putrid Vanderbilt defense and score at will. Vandy lets their opponents complete 72.4% of their passes (122nd nationally) averaging 8.1 yards per pass. They are even worse on run defense giving up 6 yards per rush. Florida will score their points and since they have a loss, there is incentive for them to keep scoring even when the game is out of hand. What this total doesn’t account for in my opinion is that Vanderbilt’s offense is improving. They have a true freshman QB who is starting to come into his own. Last week he put up 35 points on a very good Kentucky defense. That defense is much stronger than Florida’s D who is 94th nationally in passing defense. Florida could put up 60 on their own. I think Vandy gets 20-27 points as well. Take the over!
Cincinnati/UCF ov 63.5: I know what your thinking? Cincinnati has a top 10 defense, why would you want to take the over. First, Cincy’s offense is underrated. They have scored over 40 points in 3 of their last 4 games and yet their totals are still put in the 50s and low 60s. Cincy has incentive to win by as much margin as possible. They are on the outside looking into the college playoff and if they want a chance to get in, they must win and win big. That incentive to keep scoring will certainly benefit the over here. Their offense averages 9.9 yards per play which is outstanding especially considering they’ve played decent opponents. The main part of the handicap for me though is you can’t convince me that UCF won’t get their points here. UCF is averaging a whopping 619 yards per game (#1 in the country). They excel through the air completing 63% of their throws for 9.7 yards per pass. This is critical because no one can run on Cincinnati. They only give up 2.9 yards per carry. They are slightly more vulnerable through the air giving up 5.6 yards per pass. That is still an outstanding pass defense, but UFC has shown they can get yards and points against anyone. I think this will be a back and forth shootout. Take the over!
Penn State +2.5 vs. Iowa: I know Penn State is a dumpster fire. But they are not truly an 0-4 team. They dominated IU despite losing in heartbreaking fashion and now IU is considered a top 15 team in the country. Iowa has had 2 cakewalks the last few weeks, but I think that is because Minnesota and MSU are hot garbage. Penn State lost last week to Nebraska, but that game was very misleading. PSU outgained Nebraska 501 to 298…. That’s a 200 yard edge that got squandered by 2 turnovers and a 1/6 conversion rate in the red zone. That turnover and red zone luck must come back towards the mean eventually. PSU’s season is over, but these kids still have pride and were fighting hard against Nebraska. 56% of the bets and 78% of the money is on Iowa. Lets fade the public and buy low on Penn State!
Oregon/UCLA ov 64: Through the 1st two games of the season, Oregon ranks #1 in the country in yards per play, 3rd down conversion, and 4th down conversion. Once again they have an elite offensive line that can bully opposing defenses. Therefore, they average 7.1 yards per rush! UCLA’s defensive numbers are better than they look, because they got to play against Cal’s offense last week. Cal’s offense is managing only 2.9 yards per play! UCLA though does have a half decent offense. They average 6.3 yards per play, 38 points per game and 459 yards per game. They have a balanced attack that will put up points on Oregon’s lackluster defense. They are especially weak against the run giving up 5.1 yards per carry. Both teams have shown their ability to score and also their inability to get stops. Take over 64!
Oregon State +2.5 vs. Cal: The wrong team is favored here. Cal couldn’t do anything on offense vs. a below average UCLA team last week. The problem was, their offensive line played like swiss cheese. An even bigger problem for Cal was their innabilty to stop UCLA’s run game. Oregon State has a superstar running back in Jermar Jefferson. He was out most of last year, but in his first two starts this year he’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry. I expect Oregon State to control this game on the ground, have long scoring drives which will allow their defense to stay rested and get stops when they need them. Take Oregon State +2.5!
Michael’s 2019 CFB Record: