November 24, 2020

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Week 12 SEC Best Bets + Bonus Bets – 11/21/20

by Zack Lambert (@bigbird8224)

November 20th, 2020

#6 Florida at Vanderbilt

Spread: Vanderbilt +31.5

Moneyline: Not Given

O/U: 68

Time and Location: 12:00 ET, Nashville, Tennessee

Analysis and Pick

This will be one of the rare matchups this week where both teams had a game last week, but it won’t help Vanderbilt be any more prepared for what’s coming this week. Florida is good any way you frame it and the only way they can be beaten is if you can score enough to keep up with them. I’ll let you in on a secret: Vanderbilt can’t keep up. Vanderbilt is allowing quarterbacks to complete over 72% of their passes this season and Kyle Trask is a top five quarterback in the country so he might finish his day sometime in the third quarter. This is going to be a really ugly final score because Florida needs to boost the resume. Running up the score is how you do that. Take Florida to cover the spread and take the under 68 points.

LSU at Arkansas

Spread: LSU -1

Moneyline: LSU -115; Arkansas -105

O/U: 63.5

Time and Location: 12:00 ET, Fayetteville, Arkansas

Analysis and Pick

Oh boy. There’s a pretty definite line in the SEC between the decent teams and the terrible teams. If there’s a Venn diagram it’s probably just hardly overlapping to the point where you need a magnifying glass to see if there’s a pixel in between those circles. That’s where Arkansas and LSU reside. LSU swings violently between throwing knockout punches and being knocked out and Arkansas is like a passive aggressive boss who could blow up at any moment. There’s not much telling what could happen here.

Last week Arkansas was lit up by Florida for 63 and that bodes well for LSU, but what some people are overlooking are the five touchdowns that Arkansas scored. The Hogs are a pretty good football team this season all things considered and LSU isn’t. The Tigers have some big play guys who can keep this game close, but the bookies accounted for that. LSU is favored and I don’t think they deserve that. Take Arkansas to cover the spread.

Kentucky at #1 Alabama

Spread: Alabama -31

Moneyline: Not Given

O/U: 57.5

Time and Location: 4:00 ET, Tuscaloosa, Alabama

Analysis and Pick

I’m not sure here. In terms of the total we’re really asking ourselves if Alabama wants to score 50. The Tide have only covered 31 points twice this season but those were the two most recent games against Tennessee and Mississippi State. I really don’t think Alabama cares about blowing the Wildcats out and since Kentucky is gritty they might keep trying to score late in this game and I don’t like that for the spread. Take the under in this game in what should be a very intriguing matchup.

Tennessee at #23 Auburn

Spread: Auburn -10.5

Moneyline: Tennessee +290; Auburn -380

O/U: 51

Time and Location: 7:00 ET, Auburn, Alabama

Analysis and Pick

Neither of these teams played football last weekend and some people might actually be thankful for that, but this week Tennessee and Auburn are facing off in the seemingly annual “Either Gus Malzahn or the Other Guy needs to Get Fired” Bowl. Auburn is a heavy favorite in this game and they should be. They’re a better football team than Tennessee is plus they’re at home. Bo Nix looked like he was breaking out last time we saw him against LSU and now he gets to play against Tennessee’s defense. On the contrary, now Tennessee gets to play Auburn. The best play here is to take Auburn -10.5. They’re the better team, they’re more talented at almost every position, and Tennessee looks absolutely awful this season.

Mississippi State at #13 Georgia

Spread: Georgia -25

Moneyline: Mississippi State +1050; Georgia -2500

O/U: 44.5

Time and Location: 7:30 ET, Athens, Georgia

Analysis and Pick

I don’t know if a conference has ever had three games in the same week where moneylines weren’t given, but if there hasn’t this is probably as close as we’ll ever get. Mississippi State is at a low right now as a program as the mass exodus of players discontent with Mike Leach has begun. Even though they beat Vandy two weeks ago they looked terrible doing it and will need a miracle to keep this thing within seeing distance. Normally I might think that  Georgia wouldn’t want to run the score up but with JT Daniels coming in and a loss to Florida still fresh in the minds of everyone, they’re going to have a bit of a venting session with their moniker-sharers. Regardless of how bad the final score might be, take the under.

Missouri at South Carolina

Spread: USC +6

Moneyline: Missouri -230; USC +190

O/U: 57

Time and Location: 7:30 ET, Columbia, South Carolina

Analysis and Pick

I don’t like to be too pessimistic of a guy (who am I kidding) but I really think that since Muschamp is gone, South Carolina is going to quit. Jaycee Horn already called it a season and while other players might not actually quit, they’re probably mentally done with this farce of a season. On the other hand, Mizzou was last seen being taken for a ride by Florida, and not in the good way. Missouri don’t have a necessarily good defense but I don’t think South Carolina will be passing all that often with Mike Bobo in charge and that plays into the hands of the under. Missouri isn’t a team that can tack on points in a hurry so that pretty much seals the deal for me. Take the under 57 in this game. I don’t like taking all unders but this week has some pretty inflated lines.

Other Best Bets

Coastal Carolina -5

Cincinnati -5

Nevada +1.5

Zack’s 2020 CFB Record: 40-28