By: Trent Pruitt
The XFL returns for Week 2 and last week on Brunch, Bets, & the Boys I said that if I was betting on the new football league I would’ve taken the unders in every game – 3 out of 4 unders hit. Let’s see if we can find an edge this week in the Vipers vs Dragons game in Seattle.
Spread: TBV -1.5 (-110)
Money Line: TBV -130, SEA +110
Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
Kickoff: 5:00 ET, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA
Both the Vipers and Dragons picked up L’s in Week 1 as Tampa Bay got spanked 23-3 to the New York Guardians while Seattle lost to the D.C. Defenders, 31-19. This was a surprising line that Vegas gave out considering how poorly Tampa Bay looked in Week 1, turning the ball over four times and now the oddsmakers have them favored while making the long cross-country trip. Normal circumstances would call this a trap line but it’s still tough to judge considering how little statistical data there is to make a really good bet.
Another thing I noticed was that the Over/Unders have been well adjusted since last week. In Week 1 they all ranged from 50-52 points and this week they are listed at 43.5, 46.5, 47.5, & 49.
The truth is, I don’t have a best bet and I don’t want to squander my reputation and hard-earned dollars by forcing a bet in the XFL. I will give you my lean though – I’d probably play all 4 overs today if I was betting. From my experience, this seems like Vegas is overcompensating last week’s small sample size of unders. After seeing some lower scores last week I think the public bettors will lean under when in fact, we have to remember – you can score up to 9 points in one possession, the game is extremely pro-offense, and these players now have some experience playing together.
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